Can Insurers Stay Disciplined in the 2026 Softening Market?

Can Insurers Stay Disciplined in the 2026 Softening Market?

Simon Glairy is a recognized authority in the insurance and Insurtech sectors, possessing a deep understanding of how artificial intelligence and data-driven assessments are reshaping modern risk management. With a career dedicated to navigating the complexities of commercial lines, he provides a sophisticated perspective on the cyclical nature of the industry and the technological shifts currently underway. As the commercial insurance landscape moves into a softening phase, his insights into maintaining technical discipline while fostering long-term broker relationships have never been more relevant. In our conversation, we explore the transition from aggressive premium growth to a focus on profitable retention, the impact of “nuclear” legal verdicts on underwriting models, and how alternative risk solutions like parametric products are becoming essential tools for the modern carrier.

As the commercial market shifts from aggressive pricing to a softening phase, the cost of acquiring new clients is rising significantly. How do you prioritize retention over new business, and what specific metrics should teams track to ensure they aren’t sacrificing long-term profitability for short-term scale?

In the current 2026 landscape, we are seeing a definitive pivot where the sheer cost of winning over a new client has become a heavy burden on the balance sheet. When you consider the resources spent on marketing, technical vetting, and initial onboarding, it becomes clear that losing a high-quality account during a softening market is a setback no firm can easily afford. We prioritize retention by shifting the internal culture away from the “new business at any cost” mindset and instead focusing on the health of our existing book. Teams must track the “net profitability of retained accounts” alongside traditional renewal ratios to ensure we aren’t just keeping clients by slashing rates to unsustainable levels. By focusing on accounts that truly strengthen the portfolio, we ensure that our $24 billion market capitalization remains a foundation for stability rather than a target for erosion.

Underwriters often face immense pressure to lower standards to capture market share during competitive cycles. How can leadership keep teams focused on portfolio health rather than immediate annual goals, and what does a disciplined “no” look like when a broker brings a high-volume but high-risk opportunity?

Leadership must emphasize that growth is not a standalone objective but rather a natural outcome of performing the right technical behaviors consistently. When an underwriter feels the heat to meet annual targets, they might be tempted to overlook a risky exposure, but we coach our teams to remember that a decision made solely for the 2026 calendar year can lead to years of fallout. A disciplined “no” is not a door slamming shut; it is a transparent conversation where we explain that the risk profile does not align with our long-term appetite for stability. We look for opportunities that fit our specific expertise, and if a high-volume deal threatens the equilibrium of the portfolio, we have to be willing to walk away. This selectivity is what allows us to maintain our dominant positions across Canada, the UK, Europe, and the United States without compromising our core values.

Brokers are currently navigating aggressive pricing from competitors while trying to defend their existing client relationships. What practical steps can carriers take to support brokers through earlier renewal engagement, and how do value-added risk services help differentiate a firm beyond simply providing underwriting capacity?

The relationship between the carrier and the broker is being tested like never before as competitors move in with aggressive, low-ball pricing. To support our partners, we are pushing for much earlier engagement in the renewal cycle, often starting the conversation months in advance to provide the transparency that brokers need to manage client expectations. We don’t want to just offer capacity; we want to offer a suite of value-added risk services that make us an indispensable part of the client’s operational strategy. This might include detailed risk assessments, specialized technology tools, or insights into severe weather patterns that help a business prepare before a loss occurs. When a carrier demonstrates a profound understanding of a client’s specific risk profile, it moves the conversation away from the lowest price and toward the highest value.

With rising concerns over severe weather and operational disruptions, there is increasing interest in alternative risk solutions. How are parametric products and new technology investments changing the way you address client exposures, and what is the step-by-step process for integrating these tools into traditional portfolios?

The increasing frequency of severe convective storms and other climate-related disruptions has made traditional indemnity products sometimes insufficient on their own. We are leaning heavily into technology investments to develop parametric solutions that trigger payments based on predefined data points, such as wind speed or rainfall totals, rather than a lengthy manual claims adjustment process. The integration process begins with a deep dive into the client’s historical data to identify the exact thresholds that cause operational pain, followed by aligning those needs with our specialized product offerings. We then layer these parametric triggers on top of traditional policies to fill gaps in coverage, ensuring the client has immediate liquidity when a disaster strikes. This hybrid approach allows us to stay relevant inside organizations that are increasingly worried about the unpredictability of the natural world.

Social inflation and “nuclear” legal verdicts are creating significant headwinds for the industry. In an environment where litigation costs are increasingly unpredictable, how do you adjust underwriting models to account for these risks, and what specific behaviors must underwriters adopt to remain resilient?

The trend of “nuclear” verdicts—those massive legal judgments fueled by third-party litigation financing—is one of the most frustrating challenges we face today. To combat this, we are refining our underwriting models to better price the “litigation risk” associated with specific jurisdictions and industry classes known for high-velocity claims. Our underwriters are coached to be more inquisitive, looking beyond the surface-level safety records to understand the legal environment the client operates within. We cannot lose focus just because the market is becoming more litigious; instead, we must remain disciplined in our pricing and terms to ensure we are protected against these outsized awards. Resilience in this context means having the courage to charge the appropriate rate even when the rest of the market might be tempted to ignore the rising tide of social inflation.

Building brand awareness in the highly competitive United States market requires a different approach than maintaining a dominant position in other territories. Which specific industry verticals offer the most promise for profitable growth right now, and how do you align specialized product offerings with the unique needs of domestic brokers?

While we are the largest insurer in Canada, we recognize that the U.S. market is a different beast that requires a more targeted, vertical-specific strategy. We are currently looking at several key industry segments where our technical expertise provides a clear advantage, particularly in specialized areas that require more than just a “cookie-cutter” policy. By aligning our product development with the needs of domestic brokers, we can offer solutions that feel custom-built for their clients’ unique exposures, rather than trying to force-fit a global product into a local need. This expansion is supported by our 30,000-strong global workforce and our ability to conduct business in 150 territories, giving us the scale to compete while maintaining a boutique feel in our specialized lines. We are actively looking for acquisitions and new ways to advance our presence, ensuring that we step into the market with financial stability and great people leading the way.

What is your forecast for the commercial insurance market?

I believe the commercial market is entering a phase where the “great decoupling” will occur: firms that relied solely on rising rates to stay profitable will begin to struggle, while those that invested in technical underwriting and deep broker relationships will thrive. We will see a continued surge in the adoption of alternative risk transfer mechanisms as traditional capacity becomes more selective in the face of climate change and social inflation. My forecast is that while premium growth may slow across the board, the quality of the business being written will improve for those who stay disciplined. The winners in 2026 and beyond will be the organizations that view growth as an outcome of appropriate, data-driven behaviors rather than a target to be chased at any cost. Expect to see more consolidation as smaller players are unable to keep up with the technological investments required to accurately price the complex, modern risks we now face daily.

Subscribe to our weekly news digest.

Join now and become a part of our fast-growing community.

Invalid Email Address
Thanks for Subscribing!
We'll be sending you our best soon!
Something went wrong, please try again later