Simon Glairy is a seasoned figure in the insurtech and risk assessment space, bringing a data-driven perspective to the evolving landscape of climate-related hazards. With the recent New Forest wildfire serving as a stark wake-up call for the UK insurance market, he offers critical insights into how insurers must adapt to risks that ignore traditional policy boundaries. This discussion explores the convergence of multiple claim lines from a single event, the legislative and financial pressures facing the property market, and the tactical shifts brokers must take to protect clients against drought-driven exposures.
The New Forest fire reportedly started with a single vehicle and rapidly escalated into a multi-line crisis. How does this specific event illustrate the shifting nature of risk for insurers in the UK?
The Hampshire blaze was a visceral reminder that modern fire risks do not stay in a single lane; what began as a van fire on the A31 quickly spiraled into an unpredictable monster that required more than 120 firefighters to battle into the night. When you see 23 vehicles abandoned on a major transport artery, you are looking at a live demonstration of how a single incident triggers motor, property, and business interruption claims simultaneously. Unlike a flood or localized subsidence, which usually stay confined to one policy type, this wildfire ripped through the heathland and created a logistical nightmare with no confirmed reopening date for the road. It forces the industry to realize that a client’s risk isn’t just their own building, but the entire infrastructure network and the “unpredictable” nature of fire crews working against the clock. This crossover effect is exactly what makes wildfire a distinct and much more complex peril than the ones we have historically focused on in the British Isles.
With over 70% of England currently in a state of drought, how is this environmental backdrop changing the way we assess business interruption and infrastructure vulnerability?
The fact that 71.3% of England is currently in an official drought means we are operating in a tinderbox where 45 million people are already facing significant water restrictions. When temperatures climb toward the forecast 35 or 36 degrees Celsius in the Midlands and south-east, the physical strain on transport networks and power lines becomes an active exposure rather than a theoretical concern. We are seeing the Met Office consider extreme heat warnings specifically for infrastructure, which changes the game for business interruption because claims can be triggered even without physical damage to a client’s own property. A power outage or a road closure caused by heat-related failure miles away can still halt a company’s operations, proving that the economic footprint of a wildfire is far larger than the immediate zone of scorched earth. This environment turns every rural road and power line into a potential point of failure that could lead to massive payouts.
Regulatory bodies and market analysts are sounding alarms about the financial stability of property insurers. What do these pressures mean for how the industry will handle wildfire risk moving forward?
The financial pressure is becoming immense, with the Association of British Insurers reporting that UK property payouts hit a record £6.1 billion in 2025, largely driven by a 14% year-on-year surge in weather-related claims. This has caught the attention of the Prudential Regulation Authority, which launched its 2026 General Insurance Stress Test specifically to ensure firms aren’t underestimating climate-driven property exposure. When Deloitte forecasts a net underwriting loss and a combined ratio reaching 102.1% for home insurers, it signals a period where firms will likely tighten their terms and scrutinize every wildfire-exposed risk at renewal. Insurers can no longer afford to be “silent” on wildfire risks in their wordings; they are being forced by regulators and their own balance sheets to account for every possible ignition source and climate variable. We are moving into an era where “standard” cover will be a thing of the past, replaced by much more granular and scrutinized policy terms.
Many standard property policies were not drafted with wildfire as a named peril. What immediate steps should brokers take to ensure their clients are not caught in a coverage gap?
Brokers have a critical window of opportunity to act before the next loss event occurs by meticulously auditing existing policy wordings for any client holding rural property, agricultural land, or motor fleets. They must verify if wildfire is explicitly named or if the policy remains dangerously silent, which could lead to a situation where a client assumes coverage that simply does not exist. It is also vital to review business interruption extensions to confirm whether they respond to infrastructure disruptions that happen off the client’s premises, such as the road damage seen on the A31. A broker’s job right now is to close these gaps before a fire starts, ensuring that fire cover applies regardless of whether the ignition source was a vehicle, a lightning strike, or a neighboring property. By being proactive, brokers can manage expectations and secure protection before the market hardens further under the weight of the projected underwriting losses for 2026.
What is your forecast for the UK property insurance market over the next few years as these extreme heat events become more frequent?
I anticipate a fundamental shift where wildfire moves from being viewed as a “secondary peril” to a primary focus in UK risk modeling, mirroring the transition we have seen with flood insurance over the past decade. With combined ratios expected to exceed 100%, we will likely see a significant tightening of the market and a more aggressive push toward using AI-driven risk assessment to identify vulnerable properties before the first spark even flies. The industry will have to bridge the massive gap between regulatory expectations and the reality of record-breaking £6.1 billion payouts. Ultimately, the successful insurers and brokers will be those who stop treating these fires as freak occurrences and start treating them as a permanent, systemic fixture of the UK’s risk landscape. We are entering a period where the ability to model the heat’s impact on infrastructure will be just as important as modeling the fire itself.
