US 10-year Treasury yields are expected to average 4.2% over the long term, according to the Swiss Re Institute, a figure 40 basis points above its previous forecast.
Long-dated US Treasury bonds have sold off sharply this autumn, surprising many investors and taking yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds to levels last seen in 2007, analysts explain.
This compares to the first half of 2023, when long-dated Treasury yields remained low, depressed by expectations that the Fed would cut policy rates quickly and deeply in response to an expected recession in late 2023 or early 2024.
