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Potential insured flood losses pushed above NFIP’s median: Morgan Stanley

October 20, 2022

The scope and intensity of Hurricane Ian have pushed potential insured flood losses above the median with reinsurers and auto carriers on the hook, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Cat model estimates for Hurricane Ian’s flood-based insured losses are at an average of $11 billion, which is ~3x the median National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) payout of $3.1 billion.

These preliminary estimates put it on pace to be one of the costliest US flood events. To put this in perspective, according to Morgan Stanley, Hurricane Katrina’s $24.3 billion (inflation adjusted) NFIP payout was the costliest flood event on record. A NFIP loss at this scale would deplete the NFIP’s 2022 reinsurance.

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