Insurers across key emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa are navigating a complex and dualistic environment, with recent analysis pointing toward a period of strong and resilient performance for 2026. A comprehensive report covering the insurance sectors in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Africa, Turkiye, and Kazakhstan projects a promising trajectory where solid economic expansion is set to fuel greater insurance demand and penetration rates. This optimistic outlook anticipates that premium growth will significantly outpace the general economy across all five of these diverse nations, signaling a maturation of their respective insurance markets. However, this potential for robust growth does not exist in a vacuum. It is set against a backdrop of considerable downside risks, ranging from broad geopolitical instability to country-specific economic pressures, creating a challenging yet opportunity-rich landscape for industry players to traverse in the coming year.
Economic Tailwinds and Premium Expansion
The foundation for the anticipated insurance sector growth in 2026 is built upon strong underlying economic fundamentals within these key EMEA nations. As national economies expand, both corporate and retail demand for insurance products naturally increases, creating a fertile environment for premium expansion. This trend is expected to be so pronounced that the rate of premium growth will exceed that of the general economic output, a key indicator of increasing insurance penetration. For instance, the Saudi Arabian insurance market, despite experiencing a significant 41% year-on-year decline in profitability during the third quarter of 2025, is poised for a notable recovery. This rebound is largely expected to be driven by crucial rate adjustments within the motor insurance segment, which will help stabilize and bolster profitability. This pattern of growth, powered by both broad economic health and specific sectoral corrections, highlights the dynamic opportunities available to insurers who can effectively capitalize on rising demand.
Navigating a Complex Risk Landscape
The promising growth forecast was tempered by a spectrum of significant risks that varied considerably from one nation to another. At the lower-risk end of this spectrum, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both holding ‘A-‘ ratings, presented a more stable operating environment, though insurers there still contended with the pressures of high market competition. In stark contrast, Turkiye was identified as having the highest country and property and casualty (P/C) sector risk, making it particularly vulnerable to overarching threats like geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs. The analysis also revealed that insurers in South Africa, Turkiye, and Kazakhstan faced an array of additional financial headwinds. These pressures, including sovereign risk, persistent inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and fluctuating interest rates, threatened to curb profits and complicate strategic planning. The ratings for South African insurers, which ranged from ‘AA/A’ to ‘BB’, and Kazakhstan’s ‘BB’ rating further illustrated the diverse risk profiles that defined the region’s insurance landscape.
